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Obama’s Kashmir thesis

Impact on  Indo-Pak  peace process

By

M.M.Khajooria

The President elect of USA , Barack Obama  has reiterated his resolve to redeploy American troops from Iraq to Afghanistan. “well, I have said during the campaign, and I have stuck to this commitment  that as soon as I take office, I will call in the Joint Chiefs of Staff, my national security apparatus, and we will start executing a plan  that draws down troops.”  he told CBS 60 minutes In his maiden  wide ranging  interview  after  his historic win. Obama found this switch over necessary “Particularly in the light of the problems we are having in Afghanistan, which has continued to worsen , we have to shore up those efforts” he argued.  Any  focus  on Afghanistan  necessarily involved Pakistan  to whose army the USA has” out soured “ the  fight against the AL Queda. Most of the difficulties in Afghanistan were directly linked to  the  operations by the Taliban and  Al Queda   elements   safely ensconced  in  bases lying  within  the Pakistan territory. The problem was further complicated by the trust deficit between the Pakistan army, especially the Inter- Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Coalition Forces operating in Afghanistan as well as the Afghan government.  The US  also wanted the Pakistan army to concentrate on supporting the war effort in Afghanistan., which ,they (Pakistan) argued was possible only after the threat  to Pakistan  from  India eased. Thus  the ‘Kashmir dispute’  was injected  into the Afghan situation through a somewhat  convoluted logic.            

In an interview broadcast on MSNBC, Obama indicated  that his administration would encourage India  and  Pakistan to  resolve the Kashmir dispute  so that Islamabad can better cooperate with the United States. “we’re going to have to do with respect to Afghanistan is actually deal with Pakistan. And we’ve got to work with the newly elected government there (Pakistan) in a coherent way that says, terrorism is now a threat to you. Extremism is a threat to you. We should — try to resolve the Kashmir crisis so that they (Pakistan) can stay focused not on India, but on the situation with those militants”.  .His line to Pakistan was, “look at India and what they are doing, why do you want to keep on being bogged down with this  particularly  at a time where the biggest threat now is coming from the Afghan border? I think there is a moment where potentially we could get their attention. It won’t be easy, but it’s important”.  To Indians,  he essentially made “the argument that you guys are on the brink of being an economic superpower, why do you want to keep on messing with this.”

The Obama thesis  may sound attractive as part of   election rhetoric-  quick on impact and easy on  the uninitiated minds, but once in oval office, he would find that the issue was much too tangled and highly emotive to admit of any quick fix solution. The   internal  political dynamics  of the two nuclear powers , the baggage of history  and rise of Pan-Islamic fundamentalism in Pakistan  intensely committed to promote terrorism worldwide in general and India  with special emphasis on Jammu & Kashmir in particular  further aggravated the situation .There was no way  the American  administration under Obama or any one else    could  ride rough shod over  the perceived interests of the two countries locked in delicate  parleys to work out peace and accommodation..

 The Obama formulation located the source of Afghan turmoil in Pakistan .  It  linked the inability of that country to fully discharge her obligations  as US partner  in the war against the Taliban and Al Queda   to  its strained relations with India on the ‘dispute over Kashmir’ . In essence  it was argued that if the “core issue of Kashmir” were to be settled to the satisfaction on Pakistan, that country would go whole hog to fight the Taliban and Al Queda which  would    serve the American strategic and security interests packaged as peace in South Asia and the world.

The Obama thesis represents gross over simplification of a complex issue. It is  also flawed on   facts and  ignores ground realities in Pakistan. To begin with, which Pakistan was he talking about? was he talking about the people of  Pakistan? If so , he  should be aware that according to credible surveys  , America is the most hated country in Pakistan  . The net result was that even those politicians who would otherwise happily   toe the American line were both inhibited and handicapped in openly acting pro-American not with standing the fact that  the US  military and economic aid that sustained that country And what of  Pakistan Taliban whose reach extends from Karakorums to Karachi already locked in grim  battle with   US coalition forces? . Or does he have the powerful Pak army and its more powerful ISI in mind?  That an influential segment of Pakistan military leadership still held the firm view that the Taliban were the ultimate winners was no secret. They, therefore felt that to  the “continue working relations with them(Taliban)” and provide them help where possible was in the interest of Pakistan .The cosy relations between the ISI and the Mujahideen (read Talban in the current context)  have survived the vicissitudes  of time and were as stout  as ever. These interestingly  date back to the days of Soviet invasion  on Afghanistan  and Najibullah regime  when Pak ISI, the CIA and the Mujahideen (predecessors of the Taliban)  collaborated most intimately and at an unprecedented scale.    The Americans were fully aware of the ISI-Taliban tie up and therefore do not take them into confidence before launching attacks on Talban/AlQueda hideouts within Pakistan territories. . “They are not sharing any information with us. These are all totally unilateral actions.” Inter-Services Public Relations chief Maj-Gen Athar Abbas complained.  Another technique perfected during US-Pak joint operations in Afghanistan was to divert part of the armament and funds to Kashmir   with the CIA looking the other way. This experience seems  be  coming handy now’  “The United States” says  Nicholas D. Kristof” has squandered more than $10 million  on Pakistan since 9/11, and Pakistan intelligence agencies  seem to have rerouted  some of that to Talban extremists”  The escalating     militancy was souring  US-Pakistan relations and  bringing to fore the conflict of interest between the two partners in the war against international  terror.  The  CIA  chief , it may be recalled  had  sometime back  gone to the extent of   identifying  FATA as the epicentre of Al Queda  terror network  that  targets the  USA. Obama’s   running mate senator Joe Biden    devoted part of his acceptance speech to highlight the fight against extremists in Fata.“ The resurgence of fundamentalism in Afghanistan and Pakistan (is) the real central front against terrorism,” he warned. “The fact is Al Qaeda and the Taliban — the people who actually attacked us on 9/11 — have regrouped in those mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan and are plotting new attacks” ”   According to Kristof “If the government wants to stop the Talibanization   of Pakistan, the greatest need is not the money  but the political will  to stop sheltering Taliban leaders in the city of Quetta..”   And political will you can not buy or  sell. It is rooted in identification of the national interest of a  particular country.

President Zardari has repeatedly stated that he  apprehends no trouble from India. He had even spoken of” No first use of Nuclear weapon” by his county. How far his word can be trusted and how much clout he actually wielded in the power structure was another matter. In any case , as far as relations with India were concerned India, the Pakistan military establishment’ with its outdated and insecurity oriented   mindset called the shots. Was this mindset undergoing  any change?. An eminent  Pakistan analyst argued that , Gen. Mushaaraf was a “company man ” He made all the moves on Kashmir and the Indo-Pak peace process with   the   approval  of the entire military  leadership. This was also borne out by the proceedings in the US Congressional committee. In response  to  a question from Congressman Ackerman , chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Sub Committee on   South Asia, Mitchell Shivers  Principal Assistant Secretary for Defence  was   reported to have  stated  that “There is no doubt that still within the military rank and file in the army and let us say the leadership  they still turn as their greatest threat –the eastern border- the threat from India.” But , he added “We think this is changing  and it is changing rapidly.” Obama and his administration will do well to take serious note of this because  if true this could provide  the space and source  for “facilitation”  of resolution of Indo-Pak problem.

 Washington  had so far wisely  avoided  to ‘prescribe’ a roadmap for resolution of  Kashmir imbroglio in view of   the fractious and  explosive nature of the problem  in a volatile and gravely unstable South Asian politico- security environment .In any case   the  prospects for settling the Kashmir dispute through direct US intervention were rated rather   slim.   Washington under Obama should therefore  tread  with extreme circumspection and caution .Given the excellent Indo-US equation based on commonality of interests  and  high strategic and economic stakes , no one would advise Obama to make the mistake of  trying to    arm twist   India. Here was an issue   on which three wars and one mini Kargil war had been fought with Pakistan.  The  unanimous resolution of Indian parliament calling  for vacation of Pakistan’s illegal occupation of the Jammu & Kashmir territory was alive and binding. The emergence of both countries as nuclear powers  introduced  yet an other worrisome  dimension . As for as Pakistan was concerned  the  shaky state of its polity and economy  and strong and widespread  Anti-US sentiment  prevailing therein  set a limit beyond which    Pakistan government could not be pushed.  No government in that country could  afford to be seen as meekly  kowtowing  American vested  interests.

 The only  conflict-resolution option  though  somewhat   remotely viable was  the phased  conversion of the existing  Line of Control in Jammu & Kashmir into an internationally recognized Indo-Pakistani border. The hiccups and bumps in the Indo-Pak peace parleys   not withstanding, the process appeared to be headed in that general direction and was so far  holding course. Obama and his  administration  could  and should in the interests of USA  itself and peace and stability in South Asia  help  and  gently  nudge the parties to move forward  towards that goal.   This process  required  to be  quickly  supplemented by a much needed and overdue change in the  Pakistan military doctrine  that treats India as enemy number one.  The US influence   could usefully and effectively work here  . If this were to happen and  democracy and rule of law  firmed up in Pakistan , India, Pakistan and USA  might be in a position to collaborate to bring  the Afghan situation can under control .Any hasty,  rash and ham handed  intervention by USA, on the other hand  would  only further complicate  the  matters and place the precariously balanced  Indo-Pak peace process in serious jeopardy.  In the bargain the, forces of peace and amity in South Asia would be weakened and terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir as well in Pakistan revitalized .This revitalization of  the  three link   AlQueda operational structure  – the Afghan Taliban, Pakistan Taliban and Lashkar-e-Toiba/ Jaish _e-Mohammad active in J&K.- would create a situation totally in contradiction to that envisaged by the Obama thesis.

The horrendous and unprecedented amphibious   assault on Mumbai beginning 26/11 by elements from Pakistan (Laskar-e-Toiba etc) , the ensuing blood bath and  waves of terror had created a  most sensitive and highly explosive situation. The obvious inability as well as unconcealed unwillingness of a the severely  fractured polity in  totally  destabilised  Pakistan had  upset equations and  severely restricted options post Mumbai terror attack  . While this in no way diluted the validity of the above analysis, the Indo-Pak relations were  headed for an all time low  with all options open for   an outraged and terribly angry India.  The US needed to address  the highly explosive situation  top most priority.. Rest can  and should wait.

 .

Mohan.Khajooria
http://www.articlesbase.com/journalism-articles/obamas-kashmir-thesis-670837.html

Duration : 0:1:31

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